Thursday, December 27, 2012

Headline trading = volitile

Political theater

Today's market action was just one of those crazy days.  If you were privy to congressional day planners, you could make a killing just by looking at what events are scheduled.  Any sign of fiscal cliff conversation = bullish trade.  Any time Senators speak = bearish trade.

I was able to watch CNBC pretty much the entire day today (my little version of heaven) and it sounded like the "cliff" deadline is artificial and the market knows it.  A couple of our elected leaders alluded to the fact that a "framework" for a deal was the probable outcome with the actual deal being accomplished by the end of Jan with a "retroactive" bill that would undo the damage done by the cliff.  It's a big gamble and a bit of arrogance for our elected leaders to believe that they hold all the keys necessary to undo whatever may be the world economy's fate.

If I was to only look at the charts of the DJIA and friends, I'd draw a conclusion that we are at a short term market low.  The 4 hr chart is showing a bullish candlestick pattern (tweezers bottom), a very low slow stochastic, a MACD histogram that is turning bullish and price at the lower end of the bollinger bands. However, the RumWave chart does not suggest that it is time to buy.. so I won't.

Today's scores (minus the days I was on vacation)

TSP / IRA / 401K:  Safety


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