Red Light

I'm traveling today, but imagine a red light here. It is time to secure profits.

RumWave catches the Dow

Still in "Hold" mode since last green light

Without a doubt, this has been an amazing rally.  Since the last green light the RumWave method has returned 18%, surpassing the Dow.  Although we missed the first quarter's move, I feel much better now that we have caught up to and passed my stated benchmark, the DJIA.  Now we just have to wait for a sell signal.

My daily scoring system shows the DJIA in overbought territory, but so does almost every other oscillator out there.

Below are the historical scores since I developed this system.  The farthest right point is the most recent data point.  As you can see, things are pretty hot.

Below are graphs of the components that create the overall daily scores.  All of them are very high compared to historic data.

Below is the DJIA (Daily) chart.  Each candle represents one day of time.  There are no signs of breakdown yet.

Next is a 4 hour chart of the DJIA (each candle represents 4 hours of time.)  Again, no signs of breakdown.

Last is a chart of the S&P 500 (4 hour chart, including extended hour trading)  This chart looks quite bullish to me.

Ultimately, I don't have a sign from the RumWave or from basic technical looks of the charts to sell at this point.  So, I'll continue to hold.  I don't particularly like the idea of putting new money to work here.  Doing so would be a lot of "chasing" and could lend itself to losses.

If / When I get a RumWave sell signal, I will post it on this blog.

GOOD LUCK NEXT WEEK!

Maxed out

Scores are Maxed Out

There are few times that I can predict moves with certainty.  This is probably one of them.  The market is way too big for it's britches here.  My scores are near all time peak levels.  I think a consolidation day is needed at the very least.

Score Total June '12 to Today:

Strong week

Sell in May gets squeezed

The Jobs report yesterday took a lot of market skeptics by surprise.  I think a lot of the action yesterday was the result of a big short squeeze.  My scoring system indicates that the market has reached the pivotal range. The weekly charts are leading me to believe that we may see a couple more up weeks before a larger downtrend resumes.  Good news out of Europe and the US will probably fuel more market gains.

GOOD LUCK NEXT WEEK!

CHANGE OF PACE

Moving to Weekly Updates only

Well, ladies and gents, I've given a lot of thought to this blog the last few days and the time-cost of it.  After about 10 months of daily updates (give or take a day or two here and there,) I've decided that I want to reallocate my time each night to other things.  Accordingly I will only update this blog on the weekends when I have more time available.  Thanks to the regular readers out there across the planet, and I hope you continue to find this information useful in your market analysis.  I'll post updates if things are news worthy.  I'll also update my thoughts on Twitter, so feel free to follow me @RumWave. 

Here's were we stand:

- Weekly charts are giving way to some weakness.  Witness the red candle at the top of the DIA weekly chart:

Here are the daily scores.  They suggest that on a short term level, there is some room to move higher still:

Overall, I'm very cautious of the market's intentions.  I think we may end up seeing some volitility as the market find its top here.  This should benefit traders that use shorter scale charts (4hrs and less).

My position is that of "Hold" and/or secure profits.

GOOD LUCK NEXT WEEK, I'll see you next weekend!

Booked profits

Booked UDOW profits today

Although a "red light" signal isn't anywhere close, my gut told me to take my winnings to the cash register today.  The market showed a lot of difficulty climbing today, and it was at the RumWave resistance level I described yesterday.

Scores:

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!

Good day for RumWave trades

Today was a good day

RumWave inspired trades profited today.  I'm seeing a bit of resistance on the RumWave chart, so we'll see if the indexes can power through.

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!