Saturday, May 18, 2013

RumWave catches the Dow

Still in "Hold" mode since last green light

Without a doubt, this has been an amazing rally.  Since the last green light the RumWave method has returned 18%, surpassing the Dow.  Although we missed the first quarter's move, I feel much better now that we have caught up to and passed my stated benchmark, the DJIA.  Now we just have to wait for a sell signal.

My daily scoring system shows the DJIA in overbought territory, but so does almost every other oscillator out there.

Below are the historical scores since I developed this system.  The farthest right point is the most recent data point.  As you can see, things are pretty hot.

Below are graphs of the components that create the overall daily scores.  All of them are very high compared to historic data.

Below is the DJIA (Daily) chart.  Each candle represents one day of time.  There are no signs of breakdown yet.

Next is a 4 hour chart of the DJIA (each candle represents 4 hours of time.)  Again, no signs of breakdown.

Last is a chart of the S&P 500 (4 hour chart, including extended hour trading)  This chart looks quite bullish to me.

Ultimately, I don't have a sign from the RumWave or from basic technical looks of the charts to sell at this point.  So, I'll continue to hold.  I don't particularly like the idea of putting new money to work here.  Doing so would be a lot of "chasing" and could lend itself to losses.

If / When I get a RumWave sell signal, I will post it on this blog.


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