Monday, January 14, 2013

Broken clocks are right twice a day

Still doesn't look all that great to me

If I keep saying the decline is coming, I'll eventually be right!  I say that in jest, but I often think about that logic anytime perma-bulls or perma-bears open their yappers.  But in all seriousness, I think a nasty little setback is just around the corner.  The RumWave suggests it, and I believe it.

For me, the RumWave chart acts as a tie breaker when different sources of information are contradictory.  Every night I read a blog I consider to be bullish in nature and a blog that I consider to be bearish in nature.  Often they both bring up valid points, and sometimes they are things I hadn't noticed or thought of.  In this case, the bears are supported by my RumWave model.

As a final thought, the major averages are up about 3% for the first half of Jan.  Its a great start, but a pullback is necessary.  After all, if we continued this pace for the rest of the year, the major averages would be up around 72%, which is just not realistic.

Daily scores:

TSP:  G fund

IRA / 401k:  Low risk funds

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