The last week gave a false entry signal into the corrective wave. Those are extremely rare for RUM Wave analysis which was cause for significant concern. However, after additional analysis it appears that we experienced a whipsaw entry. Since 2008, whipsaw entries occurred approximately 75% of the time. For this reason, protective stops are a good way to clear out of trades that whipsaw.
Regular readers will know that I also like to review Elliot Wave (EW) analysis; not as a predictive measure, but as an assessment of possible current states. Below, I have greatly simplified current S&P 500 EW count. Most of the EW analysts I follow suggest that we are at a medium term corrective point. The problem with EW is that it (usually) can't make predictive assessments. This is where RUM Wave is helpful in finding a market bottom. My favorite EW blog can be followed here.
The daily chart of the SPY (below) shows price approaching a point of low volume, which could be the exhaustion point for bears. That would correlate with EW analysis and will probably create another RUM Wave entry point.
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