100% sideline now

No skin left in the game

Today I was finally stopped out of my final DJIA play.  Ironically, the RumWave chart made a big move to the positive side of the outlook.  I'm not really sure what that means, to be honest, so I'm happily just watching things for now.  The daily scores are all very high and there are some bearish divergences on the DJIA 1 hr and 30 minute charts.  A significant decline tomorrow would probably turn the "red light" on.

Today's scores:

TSP Gameplan:  Move to safety, G fund

401 K Gameplan:  Bond fund or other safe zone

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!

Questions, comments?  Email me:  rumwavetrading@gmail.com 

Still don't like it

Happily on the sideline

Today I should have been stopped out of my last bullish position with the early morning drop.  However, due to my own mistake in placing the order I remained in the market unintentionally.  As it turns out I was lucky and ended the day with a gain.

I still don't like what I'm seeing on the RumWave chart.  I will reset my trailing stop again to move my last position into cash.

Today's scores:

There's a lot of red on that picture of the daily scores.  I don't know if it will just be a small correction or a big one yet, but I'll be happily watching from the sidelines knowing that I beat the entire DJIA index year to date with one ETF trade over less than two weeks.

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered

Know when to walk away, know when to run

Some of you may recognize the above line from "The Gambler," a famous Kenny Rogers song.  I decided that the time to walk away is here.  Followers of the RumWave should have about a 10% gain from the time I turned on the green light last week.  Not to shabby.

Yesterday I mentioned that I was keeping an eye on something on the RumWave chart.  Today it became significantly more concerning to me so I sent an email out to my close friends suggesting that they secure the profits they have made.  Personally, I closed out my bullish option positions and set a tight trailing stop on my leveraged ETF.

I believe we are one or two days away from a relatively violent sell off.  There is a chance that the market pushes higher still, but the gravity is to the downside.

The scores:

TSP:  G Fund

401k:  Move toward conservative positions

Questions or comments?  Email me:  rumwavetrading@gmail.com

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!

This giveback is needed

It's normal, and required

Today the market gave back 120 points on the DJIA at its lowest point, then regained some ground to close down 42.  I believe this is a required move.  I would like to see it continue to the downside a bit more before recapturing the uptrend.  Markets that trend up are good, but those that move too high too fast make me a bit nervous.  It seemed like the "cyber Monday  numbers were good and I received a text message from my CNBC app that some sort of Greece finance deal was worked out.  Those may be catalysts for the market to move tomorrow.

I'm watching one thing on the RumWave chart that has me a little, well, cautious.  I'm keeping a close eye on it and will let you know if it becomes more serious.

Today's Scores:

We are seeing a climb in the daily and 4 hr chart scores.  The RumWave chart score is climbing, but it is not at an inflection point yet.

The bottom line is that I'm holding my positions through this small downturn.  If things turn bad on the RumWave chart I'll exit them, but I'll post it on the blog when I do.

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!

Short day, big gain

Moving too quick

Don't look now, but we have a nice little rally on our hands.  From the day I turned on the green light my leveraged ETF has moved 10% to the upside.  I fully expect some of that to be given back next week.

Daily scores:

The daily scores are reflecting a market that is overbought in the short term.  The red scores on the 4 hr and the orange scores on the daily tell me that we need to have a sideways or downward correction.  However, I don't plan to exit my positions when it happens.  I'll wait for the RumWave chart to tell me it is time to get out.

The 4 hr chart (above) shows a little inverted head and shoulders pattern.  We've almost met it's target of 13,000 to 13,100.

The daily chart (above) is showing a bullish cross on the MACD.  This is a good example of why I'm not that big of a fan of the MACD.  The bullish crossover is showing itself a week after the RumWave gave the "go" signal.  I don't find late signals to be all that helpful.

TSP Gameplan:  C and /or S fund

401k Gamplan:  mirror the DJIA

GOOD LUCK NEXT WEEK!

Questions, comments?  Email me:  rumwavetrading@gmail.com 

Minor pullback likely

Due for a pause

Today's action was perfect.  Not to hot, not to cold, just right.  However, the daily scores indicate that a minor pullback is likely.  When it does happen I'll think two things.. 1) this is an opportunity for those that missed the initial pop, 2) healthy markets don't move up in straight lines.

Today's scores:

Happy Thanksgiving!

TSP Gameplan:  C and/or S fund.

401k Gameplan:  Assets that mirror one of the major indexes (DJIA preferred)

GOOD LUCK AND BE THANKFUL FOR WHAT YOU HAVE!

Questions, comments?  Email me:  rumwavetrading@gmail.com 

Little less frothy

Pouring too fast leads to foam

Just as pouring a beverage too fast can lead to excessive foam, a market that climbs too fast can develop excessive froth.  The best way to handle it is to just let it sit for a bit.  Today we let the foam die down a bit through the day.  Tomorrow will be a very interesting day for me because it will show me which way the market wants to break.  I'm hoping for a sign that we want to keep the party going and continue the bullish sentiment.  Time will tell!

For now, I'm staying long and plan to be in my current positions for quite a while.

Scores:

TSP:  C and/or S fund

GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!